🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Ratchaburi run riot with a 4-7 hammering of Khon Kaen United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ratchaburi beat Khon Kaen United 4-7 at Khon Kaen Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Khon Kaen United 1.10 xG and Ratchaburi 1.57 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 4-7 for 11 actual goals. Khon Kaen United beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ratchaburi outscored their 1.57 projection by 5.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khon Kaen United attack 0.64 / defence 1.08 against Ratchaburi attack 1.20 / defence 1.02, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Khon Kaen United 26% | Draw 26% | Ratchaburi 48%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 11, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khon Kaen United 54%, Ratchaburi 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Khon Kaen United's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Ratchaburi's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.88. Form held, and they took the win. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 7 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights