Khon Kaen United 0-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Khon Kaen United at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nong Bua Pitchaya make the trip to Khon Kaen Stadium to face Khon Kaen United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 March 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Khon Kaen United have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Khon Kaen Stadium, Khon Kaen United have gone 0W 3D 7L this season (10 games, 0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nong Bua Pitchaya away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.50 for Khon Kaen United, 0.80 for Nong Bua Pitchaya — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Khon Kaen United lead 2W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2024, ended 1–6 with Nong Bua Pitchaya winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Khon Kaen United — key trading statistics (25 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Nong Bua Pitchaya — key trading statistics (25 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khon Kaen United 40% versus Nong Bua Pitchaya 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khon Kaen United 48% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khon Kaen United 1.46 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khon Kaen United attack 0.649 / defence 1.151 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.642 / defence 1.368. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.208. Khon Kaen United's attack strength of 0.649 is below the league average — the 1.46 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Nong Bua Pitchaya bring a strong defensive rating of 1.368 — this is suppressing Khon Kaen United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Khon Kaen United games / 25 Nong Bua Pitchaya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 50% | Draw 28% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 23%. Fair-value odds: Khon Kaen United 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 4.35. Khon Kaen United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Khon Kaen United are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Khon Kaen United if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Khon Kaen United 30% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Khon Kaen Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Mar 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 50% | Draw 28% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Khon Kaen United 1.46 / Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Khon Kaen United attack 0.649 / def 1.151 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.642 / def 1.368 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Khon Kaen United (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Khon Kaen United xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kick off?
Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 15 March 2025 at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What was the final score in Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Khon Kaen United 0 - 1 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Where is Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya being played?
The match is being played at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What competition is Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya part of?
Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our statistical model gives Khon Kaen United a 50% chance of winning, Nong Bua Pitchaya a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Khon Kaen United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Khon Kaen United and Nong Bua Pitchaya will score (BTTS).
Will Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Record (5 meetings): Khon Kaen United 2W | Draws 1 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 2W.
What form are Khon Kaen United and Nong Bua Pitchaya in?
Khon Kaen United (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Khon Kaen United's attack at 0.65x the league average against Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack (0.64x) against Khon Kaen United's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 54/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khon Kaen United Win
50%
2.01
28%
3.63
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Khon Kaen United xG
Total xG
2.35
0.89
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
20%
4.90
5%
19.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.4 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Khon Kaen United and Nong Bua Pitchaya expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Khon Kaen United and 0.89 for Nong Bua Pitchaya, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Khon Kaen United come into this having played 25 games, going 2W 6D 17L for 0.48 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Khon Kaen United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nong Bua Pitchaya sit at 0.92 PPG from 25 outings (5W 8D 12L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Nong Bua Pitchaya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nong Bua Pitchaya carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Khon Kaen United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Khon Kaen United's home form reads 0W 4D 7L across 11 games on their own ground, a 0.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Nong Bua Pitchaya have taken 0.27 points per game from 11 outings (0W 3D 8L). That's a step down from their 0.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nong Bua Pitchaya's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Khon Kaen United are averaging 0.56 goals scored and 2.28 conceded per game recently; Nong Bua Pitchaya are on 1.32 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nong Bua Pitchaya in 64%.
Last 25 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khon Kaen United
Blended
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khon Kaen United and Nong Bua Pitchaya in coming into this match?
Khon Kaen United have gone 2W 6D 17L in their last 25 games (0.48 PPG), while Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 5W 8D 12L in their last 25 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khon Kaen United at home or Nong Bua Pitchaya away?
Khon Kaen United's home record (0.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khon Kaen United at home: 0.36 PPG; Nong Bua Pitchaya away: 0.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Nong Bua Pitchaya have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Nong Bua Pitchaya won 6-1 on 3 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Khon Kaen United have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Nong Bua Pitchaya — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Khon Kaen United
1
Draws
3
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
From 6 meetings on record, Khon Kaen United have won 2, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Khon Kaen United and Nong Bua Pitchaya last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Khon Kaen United 0-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Who has won more matches between Khon Kaen United and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Khon Kaen United see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khon Kaen United 36%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Khon Kaen United) and 73% (Nong Bua Pitchaya). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Khon Kaen United have failed to score in 64% of games; Nong Bua Pitchaya in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khon Kaen United home games / Nong Bua Pitchaya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khon Kaen United play Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Khon Kaen United's recent matches and 73% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khon Kaen United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Khon Kaen United's matches and 73% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's.
Do Khon Kaen United and Nong Bua Pitchaya tend to score early?
Khon Kaen United have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nong Bua Pitchaya defy the odds to beat Khon Kaen United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nong Bua Pitchaya beat Khon Kaen United 0-1 at Khon Kaen Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khon Kaen United 1.46 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.89 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Khon Kaen United fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khon Kaen United attack 0.65 / defence 1.15 against Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.64 / defence 1.37, drawn from 54/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khon Kaen United 50% | Draw 28% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 23%, with Khon Kaen United to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Nong Bua Pitchaya win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khon Kaen United 48%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (25 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (25 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Nong Bua Pitchaya arrived the stronger side — 0.92 PPG against 0.48. That form edge translated into the three points. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.