Khon Kaen United 3-1 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Chiangrai United (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Khon Kaen United face Chiangrai United.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 30 as Khon Kaen United welcome Chiangrai United to Khon Kaen Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 April 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khon Kaen United stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Khon Kaen United at Khon Kaen Stadium this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Chiangrai United — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Chiangrai United have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Chiangrai United are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Chiangrai United have the better historical record — 5 wins from 7 previous contests against 0 for Khon Kaen United.
The last 7 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.4 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2024, ended 0–2 with Chiangrai United winning.
It is worth noting that Chiangrai United have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Khon Kaen United trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 48% of games.
Chiangrai United trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khon Kaen United 48% versus Chiangrai United 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khon Kaen United 56% | Chiangrai United 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khon Kaen United 1.78 xG and Chiangrai United 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khon Kaen United attack 0.849 / defence 1.446 | Chiangrai United attack 1.107 / defence 1.236. League average goals — home 1.693 / away 1.257. Chiangrai United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.236 — this is suppressing Khon Kaen United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Khon Kaen United games / 59 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 34% | Draw 23% | Chiangrai United 43%. Fair-value odds: Khon Kaen United 2.94 | Draw 4.35 | Chiangrai United 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 2.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chiangrai United as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.79 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Khon Kaen United 40% | Chiangrai United 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Khon Kaen Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Apr 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 34% | Draw 23% | Chiangrai United 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 73% | xG Khon Kaen United 1.78 / Chiangrai United 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: Khon Kaen United attack 0.849 / def 1.446 | Chiangrai United attack 1.107 / def 1.236 | league avg home 1.693 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Khon Kaen United xG
Expected Goals
2.01
Chiangrai United xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What was the final score in Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United?
Khon Kaen United 3 - 1 Chiangrai United.
Where is Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What competition is Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United part of?
Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Khon Kaen United a 34% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 43% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United?
Record (7 meetings): Khon Kaen United 0W | Draws 2 | Chiangrai United 5W.
What form are Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United in?
Khon Kaen United (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Chiangrai United (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Khon Kaen United's attack at 0.85x the league average against Chiangrai United's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangrai United's attack versus Khon Kaen United's defence, projects 2.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.1%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
34%
2.94
23%
4.38
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Khon Kaen United xG
Total xG
3.79
2.01
Chiangrai United xG
2.94
34%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.67
Clean Sheet
13%
7.47
17%
5.91
Win to Nil
5%
22.00
7%
13.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Khon Kaen United and 2.01 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Khon Kaen United come into this having played 59 games, going 11W 17D 31L for 0.85 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Chiangrai United sit at 1.19 PPG from 59 outings (19W 13D 27L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Khon Kaen United on 0.85 PPG, Chiangrai United on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Khon Kaen United's home form reads 6W 13D 10L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Chiangrai United have taken 0.72 points per game from 29 outings (5W 6D 18L). That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chiangrai United's season.
The Goals Picture
Khon Kaen United are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.07 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khon Kaen United
Current Season
Chiangrai United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Khon Kaen United have gone 11W 17D 31L in their last 59 games (0.85 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 19W 13D 27L in their last 59 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khon Kaen United at home or Chiangrai United away?
Khon Kaen United's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khon Kaen United at home: 1.07 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 0.72 PPG.
Have Khon Kaen United or Chiangrai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khon Kaen United have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Chiangrai United in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Khon Kaen United's record when hosting Chiangrai United specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Khon Kaen United
2
Draws
5
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United?
From 8 meetings on record, Khon Kaen United have won 1, Chiangrai United have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2025, when Khon Kaen United 3-1 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khon Kaen United 52%, Chiangrai United 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Khon Kaen United) and 55% (Chiangrai United).
On the defensive side: Khon Kaen United have failed to score in 41% of games; Chiangrai United in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khon Kaen United home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khon Kaen United play Chiangrai United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Khon Kaen United's recent matches and 48% of Chiangrai United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Khon Kaen United's recent games and 55% of Chiangrai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Khon Kaen United have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Khon Kaen United cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Chiangrai United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khon Kaen United beat Chiangrai United 3-1 at Khon Kaen Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khon Kaen United 1.78 xG and Chiangrai United 2.01 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Khon Kaen United beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Chiangrai United landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khon Kaen United attack 0.85 / defence 1.45 against Chiangrai United attack 1.11 / defence 1.24, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khon Kaen United 34% | Draw 23% | Chiangrai United 43%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Khon Kaen United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khon Kaen United 56%, Chiangrai United 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khon Kaen United 0.85 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Khon Kaen United win broke the near-deadlock. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.