🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Kanchanaburi and Uthai Thani share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kanchanaburi and Uthai Thani finished level at 1-1 at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kanchanaburi 2.08 xG and Uthai Thani 1.11 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Kanchanaburi fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kanchanaburi attack 1.08 / defence 1.03 against Uthai Thani attack 0.95 / defence 1.23, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kanchanaburi 58% | Draw 25% | Uthai Thani 18%, with Kanchanaburi to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kanchanaburi 43%, Uthai Thani 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kanchanaburi's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.

Uthai Thani's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Kanchanaburi arrived the stronger side — 0.86 PPG against 0.43. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kanchanaburi conceded 1 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line. Uthai Thani conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights