🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Kanchanaburi at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kanchanaburi vs Uthai Thani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 8 as Kanchanaburi welcome Uthai Thani to Kanchanaburi Province Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 October 2025 at 13:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Kanchanaburi — All Games: 1W 3D 3L from 7 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.86 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.14 goals per game and conceding 2.29 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.29 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Kanchanaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Kanchanaburi at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium this season: 1W 2D 0L from 3 home games — 1.67 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.86 — Kanchanaburi are significantly better at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Uthai Thani have recorded 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Uthai Thani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Uthai Thani away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kanchanaburi at 0.86 PPG versus Uthai Thani's 0.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

In-Play Data

Kanchanaburi trading profile (7 games): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 57% of games.

Uthai Thani trading profile (7 games): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kanchanaburi 29% versus Uthai Thani 86%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kanchanaburi 43% | Uthai Thani 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kanchanaburi 2.08 xG and Uthai Thani 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kanchanaburi attack 1.083 / defence 1.035 | Uthai Thani attack 0.954 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.557 / away 1.120. Uthai Thani bring a strong defensive rating of 1.230 — this is suppressing Kanchanaburi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Kanchanaburi games / 37 Uthai Thani games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Kanchanaburi 58% | Draw 25% | Uthai Thani 18%. Fair-value odds: Kanchanaburi 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Uthai Thani 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Kanchanaburi (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Kanchanaburi at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Kanchanaburi 33% | Uthai Thani 60%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights