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Stalemate at Kanchanaburi's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kanchanaburi and Prachuap finished level at 0-0 at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kanchanaburi 1.75 xG and Prachuap 0.98 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kanchanaburi fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Prachuap landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kanchanaburi attack 1.01 / defence 1.01 against Prachuap attack 0.91 / defence 1.08, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kanchanaburi 55% | Draw 24% | Prachuap 21%, with Kanchanaburi to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kanchanaburi 44%, Prachuap 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kanchanaburi's trading profile (18 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Prachuap's trading profile (18 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Prachuap arrived the stronger side — 1.28 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kanchanaburi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Prachuap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights