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Dominant Port FC run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Kanchanaburi.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Port FC beat Kanchanaburi 1-4 at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kanchanaburi 1.52 xG and Port FC 1.06 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Port FC outscored their 1.06 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kanchanaburi attack 0.88 / defence 0.92 against Port FC attack 1.06 / defence 1.11, drawn from 20/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kanchanaburi 47% | Draw 27% | Port FC 26%, with Kanchanaburi to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Port FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kanchanaburi 40%, Port FC 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kanchanaburi's trading profile (20 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Port FC's trading profile (20 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kanchanaburi (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Port FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights