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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kanchanaburi and Chonburi FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kanchanaburi and Chonburi FC finished level at 2-2 at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kanchanaburi 1.26 xG and Chonburi FC 1.44 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kanchanaburi attack 0.70 / defence 1.46 against Chonburi FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.22, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kanchanaburi 31% | Draw 30% | Chonburi FC 39%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kanchanaburi 46%, Chonburi FC 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kanchanaburi's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Chonburi FC's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Chonburi FC arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.79. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights