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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Chonburi FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sukhothai FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chonburi FC beat Sukhothai FC 2-0 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.70 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.72 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.08 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.58 / defence 1.37, drawn from 24/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 59% | Draw 27% | Sukhothai FC 14%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 46%, Sukhothai FC 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chonburi FC's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Sukhothai FC's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chonburi FC 1.17 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chonburi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights