Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Sisaket United travel to IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium to take on Chonburi FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 19 February 2027, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chonburi FC have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium, Chonburi FC have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Sisaket United — All Games: 3W 1D 3L from 7 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.43 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.43 per game is modest, conceding 1.86 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sisaket United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sisaket United away from home this season: 2W 0D 1L from 3 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.43 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Chonburi FC) versus 1.43 (Sisaket United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Chonburi FC, 1 for Sisaket United and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Oct 2026, ended 1–2 with Sisaket United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Chonburi FC trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
Sisaket United trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chonburi FC 57% and Sisaket United 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 57% | Sisaket United 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.43 xG and Sisaket United 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.882 / defence 0.958 | Sisaket United attack 1.016 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.436. Data: 37 Chonburi FC games / 7 Sisaket United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 38% | Draw 25% | Sisaket United 37%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Sisaket United 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chonburi FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chonburi FC 50% | Sisaket United 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 19 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 38% | Draw 25% | Sisaket United 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Chonburi FC 1.43 / Sisaket United 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 0.882 / def 0.958 | Sisaket United attack 1.016 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Sisaket United xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Friday 19 February 2027 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United being played?
The match is being played at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United part of?
Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 38% chance of winning, Sisaket United a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Chonburi FC and Sisaket United will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Sisaket United?
Record (1 meetings): Chonburi FC 0W | Draws 0 | Sisaket United 1W.
What form are Chonburi FC and Sisaket United in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Sisaket United (all comps): 3W-1D-3L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.86 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Chonburi FC's attack at 0.88x the league average against Sisaket United's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sisaket United's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
38%
2.63
25%
3.94
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.83
1.40
Sisaket United xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
9%
10.64
9%
11.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.8 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Sisaket United expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.40 for Sisaket United, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chonburi FC come into this having played 7 games, going 2W 0D 5L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sisaket United sit at 1.43 PPG from 7 outings (3W 1D 3L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sisaket United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sisaket United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Chonburi FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Chonburi FC's home form reads 1W 0D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Sisaket United have taken 2.00 points per game from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 1.43 PPG overall record — Sisaket United travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sisaket United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Sisaket United are on 1.43 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sisaket United in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Early Season
Sisaket United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Sisaket United in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 2W 0D 5L in their last 7 games (0.86 PPG), while Sisaket United have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Sisaket United away?
Sisaket United's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 1.00 PPG; Sisaket United away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Chonburi FC
0
Draws
1
Sisaket United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Sisaket United?
From 1 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 0, Sisaket United have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Sisaket United last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when Sisaket United 2-1 Chonburi FC.
Who has won more matches between Chonburi FC and Sisaket United?
Sisaket United have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sisaket United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 33%, Sisaket United 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Chonburi FC) and 67% (Sisaket United).
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sisaket United in 33%; Chonburi FC have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Sisaket United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Sisaket United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Chonburi FC's recent matches and 67% of Sisaket United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 67% of Sisaket United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Sisaket United tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sisaket United in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.