Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Sisaket United travel to IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium to take on Chonburi FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 19 February 2027, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chonburi FC have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium, Chonburi FC have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Chonburi FC are significantly better at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Sisaket United — All Games: 1W 0D 2L from 3 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Sisaket United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Chonburi FC) versus 1.00 (Sisaket United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Chonburi FC trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Sisaket United trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Chonburi FC 33% | Sisaket United 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chonburi FC 33% | Sisaket United 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.33 xG and Sisaket United 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.946 / defence 1.071 | Sisaket United attack 0.850 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.221. Data: 33 Chonburi FC games / 3 Sisaket United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 42% | Draw 27% | Sisaket United 31%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Sisaket United 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chonburi FC as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chonburi FC 50% | Sisaket United 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 19 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 42% | Draw 27% | Sisaket United 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Chonburi FC 1.33 / Sisaket United 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 0.946 / def 1.071 | Sisaket United attack 0.850 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Sisaket United xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Friday 19 February 2027 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United being played?
The match is being played at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United part of?
Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 42% chance of winning, Sisaket United a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Chonburi FC and Sisaket United will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Sisaket United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chonburi FC and Sisaket United in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Sisaket United (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Chonburi FC's attack at 0.95x the league average against Sisaket United's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sisaket United's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
42%
2.39
27%
3.68
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.45
1.11
Sisaket United xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
14%
7.28
8%
12.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.9 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Sisaket United expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.11 for Sisaket United, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chonburi FC come into this having played 3 games, going 0W 0D 3L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sisaket United sit at 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L), a run that reads L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sisaket United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sisaket United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Chonburi FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Chonburi FC are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Sisaket United are on 0.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 3 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Early Season
Sisaket United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Sisaket United in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 games (0.00 PPG), while Sisaket United have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
Have Chonburi FC or Sisaket United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chonburi FC have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Sisaket United in 33%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Sisaket United see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Chonburi FC 33% BTTS, Sisaket United 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Chonburi FC and 33% for Sisaket United.
On the defensive side: Sisaket United in 33%; Chonburi FC have failed to score in 67% of games; Sisaket United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Sisaket United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Sisaket United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Chonburi FC's recent matches and 33% of Sisaket United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chonburi FC vs Sisaket United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 33% of Sisaket United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Sisaket United tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sisaket United in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.