🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Chonburi FC and Prachuap share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium, Regular Season - 6, as Chonburi FC and Prachuap drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 0.91 xG and Prachuap 1.08 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.60 / defence 0.97 against Prachuap attack 0.89 / defence 1.02, drawn from 5/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 28% | Draw 35% | Prachuap 37%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 40%, Prachuap 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chonburi FC's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did.

Prachuap's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Prachuap arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights