Chonburi FC 1-1 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Prachuap at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chonburi FC vs Prachuap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chonburi FC host Prachuap at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 September 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chonburi FC have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Prachuap — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Prachuap have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Prachuap have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Prachuap's 1.20 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Chonburi FC's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Chonburi FC, 2 for Prachuap and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Chonburi FC in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 80% of games.
Prachuap in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Chonburi FC 20% | Prachuap 40%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chonburi FC 40% | Prachuap 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 0.91 xG and Prachuap 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.599 / defence 0.974 | Prachuap attack 0.892 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.249. Chonburi FC's attack strength of 0.599 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 Chonburi FC games / 35 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 28% | Draw 35% | Prachuap 37%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 3.57 | Draw 2.86 | Prachuap 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Prachuap at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Prachuap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.99 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Chonburi FC 20% | Prachuap 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Sep 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 28% | Draw 35% | Prachuap 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 42% | xG Chonburi FC 0.91 / Prachuap 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 0.599 / def 0.974 | Prachuap attack 0.892 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Prachuap xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Prachuap kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Prachuap kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 27 September 2025 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Prachuap?
Chonburi FC 1 - 1 Prachuap.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Prachuap part of?
Chonburi FC vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 28% chance of winning, Prachuap a 37% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Chonburi FC and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Prachuap?
Record (6 meetings): Chonburi FC 3W | Draws 1 | Prachuap 2W.
What form are Chonburi FC and Prachuap in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 0W-2D-3L in 5 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Prachuap (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Chonburi FC's attack at 0.60x the league average against Prachuap's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Prachuap's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
28%
3.60
35%
2.83
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
1.99
1.08
Prachuap xG
3.60
28%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
9%
10.66
15%
6.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 14.8 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.08 for Prachuap, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 5 outings, Chonburi FC have picked up 0.40 PPG on a 0W 2D 3L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Prachuap's form line: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Prachuap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Prachuap are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chonburi FC.
Goals in Recent Form
Chonburi FC are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chonburi FC have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games.
Defensively: Prachuap in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Early Season
Prachuap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 0W 2D 3L in their last 5 games (0.40 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 (1.00 PPG).
Have Chonburi FC or Prachuap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chonburi FC have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Prachuap in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Chonburi FC's record when hosting Prachuap specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Chonburi FC
2
Draws
3
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Prachuap?
From 8 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 3, Prachuap have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Prachuap 2-0 Chonburi FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chonburi FC see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Chonburi FC 20% BTTS, Prachuap 40%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Chonburi FC) and 40% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Prachuap in 40%; Chonburi FC have failed to score in 80% of games; Prachuap in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Prachuap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Chonburi FC's recent matches and 40% of Prachuap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chonburi FC vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 40% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Prachuap tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chonburi FC and Prachuap share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium, Regular Season - 6, as Chonburi FC and Prachuap drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 0.91 xG and Prachuap 1.08 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.60 / defence 0.97 against Prachuap attack 0.89 / defence 1.02, drawn from 5/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 28% | Draw 35% | Prachuap 37%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 40%, Prachuap 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did.
Prachuap's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Prachuap arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.