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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Chonburi FC edge out Port FC 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chonburi FC beat Port FC 3-2 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.22 xG and Port FC 1.13 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Chonburi FC beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Port FC outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.80 / defence 1.06 against Port FC attack 1.00 / defence 0.97, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 38% | Draw 29% | Port FC 33%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 39%, Port FC 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chonburi FC's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Port FC's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Chonburi FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Port FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights