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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Chonburi FC and Kanchanaburi share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium, Regular Season - 15, as Chonburi FC and Kanchanaburi drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 2.13 xG and Kanchanaburi 0.90 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Chonburi FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.11 against Kanchanaburi attack 0.66 / defence 1.47, drawn from 14/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 64% | Draw 24% | Kanchanaburi 13%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 54%, Kanchanaburi 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chonburi FC's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Kanchanaburi's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chonburi FC 1.00 PPG, Kanchanaburi 0.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kanchanaburi (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights