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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium, Regular Season - 8, as Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.03 xG and Chiangrai United 1.11 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.66 / defence 1.05 against Chiangrai United attack 0.94 / defence 1.00, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 31% | Draw 34% | Chiangrai United 35%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 29%, Chiangrai United 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chonburi FC's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Chiangrai United's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Chiangrai United arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.57. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights