Chonburi FC 1-1 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Chiangrai United (35%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Chonburi FC face Chiangrai United.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Chiangrai United travel to IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium to take on Chonburi FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 October 2025, 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chonburi FC have gone 0W 4D 3L from 7 outings — a 0.57 PPG return. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 0.57 goals per game and conceding 1.29 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chonburi FC at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium this season: 0W 1D 2L from 3 home games — 0.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Chiangrai United — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Chiangrai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Chiangrai United have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Chiangrai United are 0.73 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.57), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Chonburi FC have won 1, Chiangrai United 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2024, ended 2–0 with Chonburi FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Chonburi FC trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they fail to score in 57% of games.
Chiangrai United trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 43% versus Chiangrai United 71%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chonburi FC 29% | Chiangrai United 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.03 xG and Chiangrai United 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.661 / defence 1.050 | Chiangrai United attack 0.941 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.122. Chonburi FC's attack strength of 0.661 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Chonburi FC games / 37 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 31% | Draw 34% | Chiangrai United 35%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 3.23 | Draw 2.94 | Chiangrai United 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chiangrai United as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Chonburi FC 33% | Chiangrai United 80%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Oct 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 31% | Draw 34% | Chiangrai United 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Chonburi FC 1.03 / Chiangrai United 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 0.661 / def 1.050 | Chiangrai United attack 0.941 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Chiangrai United xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 19 October 2025 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United?
Chonburi FC 1 - 1 Chiangrai United.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United part of?
Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 31% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 35% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United?
Record (6 meetings): Chonburi FC 1W | Draws 2 | Chiangrai United 3W.
What form are Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 0W-4D-3L in 7 | 0.57 PPG | GF 0.57 / GA 1.29 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Chiangrai United (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Chonburi FC's attack rating (0.66) and Chiangrai United's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangrai United's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
31%
3.24
34%
2.91
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.14
1.11
Chiangrai United xG
3.24
31%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
10%
9.83
12%
8.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.5 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.11 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chonburi FC's recent record stands at 0W 4D 3L from 7 games, a 0.57 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chiangrai United, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 2L across 7 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-D-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Chiangrai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chiangrai United by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chonburi FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Chonburi FC have managed 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — 0.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chiangrai United's away record stands at 0W 3D 0L across 3 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chiangrai United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chonburi FC are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Early Season
Chiangrai United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 0W 4D 3L in their last 7 games (0.57 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 2W 3D 2L in their last 7 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Chiangrai United away?
Chiangrai United's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 0.33 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Chonburi FC's record when hosting Chiangrai United specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Chonburi FC
3
Draws
4
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United?
From 9 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 2, Chiangrai United have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Chiangrai United 1-0 Chonburi FC.
Who has won more matches between Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chonburi FC tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Chonburi FC at 33%, Chiangrai United at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Chonburi FC and 0% for Chiangrai United.
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Chiangrai United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Chonburi FC's games and 100% of Chiangrai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 0% of Chiangrai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium, Regular Season - 8, as Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.03 xG and Chiangrai United 1.11 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.66 / defence 1.05 against Chiangrai United attack 0.94 / defence 1.00, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 31% | Draw 34% | Chiangrai United 35%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 29%, Chiangrai United 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Chiangrai United arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.57. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.