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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Chiangrai United edge out Uthai Thani 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chiangrai United beat Uthai Thani 1-0 at Leo Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.36 xG and Uthai Thani 0.73 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.84 / defence 0.92 against Uthai Thani attack 0.77 / defence 1.07, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 49% | Draw 33% | Uthai Thani 17%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 41%, Uthai Thani 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chiangrai United's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Uthai Thani's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.24 PPG, Uthai Thani 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chiangrai United win broke the near-deadlock. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights