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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Leo Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 20, as Chiangrai United and Sukhothai FC drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.56 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.65 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.79 / defence 1.12 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.53 / defence 1.34, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 57% | Draw 30% | Sukhothai FC 13%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 44%, Sukhothai FC 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chiangrai United's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Sukhothai FC's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.18 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights