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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Rayong FC defy the odds to beat Chiangrai United 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rayong FC beat Chiangrai United 0-1 at Leo Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.55 xG and Rayong FC 1.09 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Chiangrai United fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.96 / defence 0.86 against Rayong FC attack 1.06 / defence 1.07, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 45% | Draw 30% | Rayong FC 24%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Rayong FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 44%, Rayong FC 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chiangrai United's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Rayong FC's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.25 PPG, Rayong FC 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rayong FC win broke the near-deadlock. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward. Rayong FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.18 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights