Chiangrai United 0-1 Rayong FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chiangrai United vs Rayong FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Leo Chiangrai Stadium plays host to Chiangrai United versus Rayong FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Saturday 4 October 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Chiangrai United (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Chiangrai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chiangrai United have posted 8W 0D 2L at Leo Chiangrai Stadium — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Leo Chiangrai Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Chiangrai United are significantly better at Leo Chiangrai Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Rayong FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Rayong FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rayong FC away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Chiangrai United, 1.40 for Rayong FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Chiangrai United, 1 for Rayong FC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2025, ended 1–0 with Chiangrai United winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Chiangrai United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Rayong FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 44% versus Rayong FC 72%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 44% | Rayong FC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.55 xG and Rayong FC 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.961 / defence 0.860 | Rayong FC attack 1.058 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.199. Data: 36 Chiangrai United games / 36 Rayong FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 45% | Draw 30% | Rayong FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Rayong FC 4.17. Chiangrai United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chiangrai United at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Chiangrai United 30% | Rayong FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Rayong FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Leo Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Oct 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 45% | Draw 30% | Rayong FC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Chiangrai United 1.55 / Rayong FC 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 0.961 / def 0.860 | Rayong FC attack 1.058 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Rayong FC xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Rayong FC kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Rayong FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 4 October 2025 at Leo Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Rayong FC?
Chiangrai United 0 - 1 Rayong FC.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Rayong FC being played?
The match is being played at Leo Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Rayong FC part of?
Chiangrai United vs Rayong FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Rayong FC?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 45% chance of winning, Rayong FC a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Rayong FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Chiangrai United and Rayong FC will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Rayong FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Rayong FC?
Record (2 meetings): Chiangrai United 1W | Draws 0 | Rayong FC 1W.
What form are Chiangrai United and Rayong FC in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Rayong FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Chiangrai United's attack rating (0.96) and Rayong FC's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rayong FC's attack (1.06x) against Chiangrai United's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
45%
2.20
30%
3.29
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.65
1.09
Rayong FC xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
5%
19.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Rayong FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Rayong FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 1.09 for Rayong FC, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Rayong FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chiangrai United's recent record stands at 13W 6D 17L from 36 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Chiangrai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rayong FC, meanwhile, have gone 10W 10D 16L across 36 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-D-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Rayong FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Chiangrai United against 1.11 for Rayong FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Chiangrai United have managed 10W 2D 5L from 17 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Chiangrai United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Rayong FC's away record stands at 3W 4D 10L across 17 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chiangrai United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Rayong FC are on 1.42 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayong FC in 72%.
Last 36 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Early Season
Rayong FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Rayong FC in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 13W 6D 17L in their last 36 games (1.25 PPG), while Rayong FC have gone 10W 10D 16L in their last 36 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Rayong FC away?
Chiangrai United's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.88 PPG; Rayong FC away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chiangrai United have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Rayong FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Chiangrai United
1
Draws
2
Rayong FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Rayong FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 1, Rayong FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Rayong FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Rayong FC 1-1 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Rayong FC?
Rayong FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 35%, Rayong FC 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Chiangrai United) and 65% (Rayong FC).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Rayong FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Rayong FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 65% of Rayong FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangrai United vs Rayong FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 65% of Rayong FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Rayong FC tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Rayong FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rayong FC defy the odds to beat Chiangrai United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rayong FC beat Chiangrai United 0-1 at Leo Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.55 xG and Rayong FC 1.09 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Chiangrai United fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.96 / defence 0.86 against Rayong FC attack 1.06 / defence 1.07, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 45% | Draw 30% | Rayong FC 24%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Rayong FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 44%, Rayong FC 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rayong FC's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.25 PPG, Rayong FC 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rayong FC win broke the near-deadlock. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward. Rayong FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.