Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 37%, yet in-form Ratchaburi provide a compelling counter-argument — this Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Ratchaburi travel to Singha Chiangrai Stadium to take on Chiangrai United. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 October 2026, 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chiangrai United have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Chiangrai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chiangrai United's home record at Singha Chiangrai Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Singha Chiangrai Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ratchaburi stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ratchaburi's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Ratchaburi's 2.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Chiangrai United's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Chiangrai United, 3 for Ratchaburi and 3 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 10 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Chiangrai United winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Chiangrai United in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games).
Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 62% versus Ratchaburi 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 32% | Ratchaburi 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.13 xG and Ratchaburi 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.778 / defence 0.845 | Ratchaburi attack 0.992 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.287. Chiangrai United's attack strength of 0.778 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 34 Chiangrai United games / 34 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 37% | Draw 29% | Ratchaburi 34%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Ratchaburi 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chiangrai United at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ratchaburi (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Chiangrai United 40% | Ratchaburi 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Singha Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 37% | Draw 29% | Ratchaburi 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Chiangrai United 1.13 / Ratchaburi 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 0.778 / def 0.845 | Ratchaburi attack 0.992 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Ratchaburi xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Singha Chiangrai Stadium.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Singha Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi part of?
Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 37% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi?
Record (10 meetings): Chiangrai United 4W | Draws 3 | Ratchaburi 3W.
What form are Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Ratchaburi (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Chiangrai United's attack rating (0.78) and Ratchaburi's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus Chiangrai United's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
37%
2.72
29%
3.43
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.21
1.08
Ratchaburi xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
13%
7.99
11%
9.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 11.8 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 1.08 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chiangrai United's recent record stands at 10W 14D 10L from 34 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Chiangrai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ratchaburi, meanwhile, have gone 20W 6D 8L across 34 games — 1.94 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ratchaburi by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chiangrai United heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Chiangrai United have managed 8W 3D 6L from 17 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ratchaburi's away record stands at 10W 2D 5L across 17 trips, a 1.88 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.88 scored and 0.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Early Season
Ratchaburi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 10W 14D 10L in their last 34 games (1.29 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 20W 6D 8L in their last 34 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Ratchaburi away?
Ratchaburi's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.59 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Chiangrai United or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 29 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Chiangrai United have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Dec 2023, when Ratchaburi won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chiangrai United's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Chiangrai United
3
Draws
3
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi?
From 10 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 4, Ratchaburi have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2026, when Chiangrai United 1-0 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 35%, Ratchaburi 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 24% (Chiangrai United) and 59% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 65% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangrai United vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 59% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.