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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Port FC edge out Chiangrai United 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Port FC beat Chiangrai United 1-2 at Leo Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.11 xG and Port FC 1.30 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.78 / defence 1.05 against Port FC attack 1.10 / defence 0.98, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 29% | Draw 33% | Port FC 38%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 42%, Port FC 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chiangrai United's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Port FC's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights