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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Leo Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 15, as Chiangrai United and Lamphun Warrior drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.61 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.00 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.80 / defence 0.87 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.95 / defence 1.34, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 49% | Draw 30% | Lamphun Warrior 21%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 37%, Lamphun Warrior 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chiangrai United's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.26 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights