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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Chiangrai United edge out BG Pathum United 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chiangrai United beat BG Pathum United 1-0 at Leo Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.37 xG and BG Pathum United 1.22 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. BG Pathum United landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.98 / defence 0.99 against BG Pathum United attack 1.03 / defence 0.91, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 38% | Draw 31% | BG Pathum United 31%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 47%, BG Pathum United 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chiangrai United's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.

BG Pathum United's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Chiangrai United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights