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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Chiangrai United cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bangkok United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chiangrai United beat Bangkok United 2-0 at Leo Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 0.76 xG and Bangkok United 1.04 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Chiangrai United beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bangkok United landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.76 / defence 1.16 against Bangkok United attack 0.82 / defence 0.68, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 23% | Draw 39% | Bangkok United 38%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a Chiangrai United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 43%, Bangkok United 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chiangrai United's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Bangkok United's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Chiangrai United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Bangkok United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights