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Stalemate at Chiangrai United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Leo Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 18, as Chiangrai United and Ayutthaya FC drew 0-0 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.27 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.19 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Chiangrai United fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Ayutthaya FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.80 / defence 0.94 against Ayutthaya FC attack 1.14 / defence 1.01, drawn from 47/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 38% | Draw 27% | Ayutthaya FC 35%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 29%, Ayutthaya FC 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 74%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chiangrai United's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.29 PPG, Ayutthaya FC 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Ayutthaya FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights