Chiangrai United 0-0 Ayutthaya FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chiangrai United vs Ayutthaya FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Leo Chiangrai Stadium plays host to Chiangrai United versus Ayutthaya FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 24 January 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Chiangrai United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chiangrai United's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Leo Chiangrai Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Chiangrai United are significantly better at Leo Chiangrai Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Ayutthaya FC (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ayutthaya FC's away record: 4W 2D 2L from 8 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.75 PPG). They are averaging 1.88 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Chiangrai United, 1.40 for Ayutthaya FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Chiangrai United lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Chiangrai United half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Ayutthaya FC half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chiangrai United 71% and Ayutthaya FC 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 29% | Ayutthaya FC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.27 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.800 / defence 0.943 | Ayutthaya FC attack 1.143 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.105. Data: 47 Chiangrai United games / 17 Ayutthaya FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 38% | Draw 27% | Ayutthaya FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Ayutthaya FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chiangrai United at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Chiangrai United 40% | Ayutthaya FC 62%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Ayutthaya FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Leo Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jan 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 38% | Draw 27% | Ayutthaya FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Chiangrai United 1.27 / Ayutthaya FC 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 0.800 / def 0.943 | Ayutthaya FC attack 1.143 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.564 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Ayutthaya FC xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Ayutthaya FC kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Ayutthaya FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 24 January 2026 at Leo Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Ayutthaya FC?
Chiangrai United 0 - 0 Ayutthaya FC.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Ayutthaya FC being played?
The match is being played at Leo Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Ayutthaya FC part of?
Chiangrai United vs Ayutthaya FC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 38% chance of winning, Ayutthaya FC a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Chiangrai United and Ayutthaya FC will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Ayutthaya FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Ayutthaya FC?
Record (1 meetings): Chiangrai United 0W | Draws 1 | Ayutthaya FC 0W.
What form are Chiangrai United and Ayutthaya FC in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Chiangrai United's attack at 0.80x the league average against Ayutthaya FC's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ayutthaya FC's attack (1.14x) against Chiangrai United's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 47/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
38%
2.63
27%
3.65
35%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.46
1.19
Ayutthaya FC xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.90
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
12%
8.65
10%
10.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.2 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.9 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Ayutthaya FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 1.19 for Ayutthaya FC, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Ayutthaya FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 17 outings, Chiangrai United have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 5W 7D 5L record — D-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ayutthaya FC's form line: 5W 6D 6L from 17 games, 1.24 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-L. The sample for Ayutthaya FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Chiangrai United against 1.24 for Ayutthaya FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Chiangrai United have posted 1.62 PPG from 8 outings (4W 1D 3L).
On the road, Ayutthaya FC have gone 4W 2D 2L from 8 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.24 PPG overall record — Ayutthaya FC travel well.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Ayutthaya FC are on 1.53 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Ayutthaya FC in 76%.
Last 17 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Blended
Ayutthaya FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Ayutthaya FC in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 5W 7D 5L in their last 17 games (1.29 PPG), while Ayutthaya FC have gone 5W 6D 6L in their last 17 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Ayutthaya FC away?
Ayutthaya FC's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.62 PPG; Ayutthaya FC away: 1.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Chiangrai United
2
Draws
0
Ayutthaya FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Ayutthaya FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 0, Ayutthaya FC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Ayutthaya FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Chiangrai United 0-0 Ayutthaya FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 38%, Ayutthaya FC 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Chiangrai United) and 62% (Ayutthaya FC).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Ayutthaya FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Ayutthaya FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 62% of Ayutthaya FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangrai United vs Ayutthaya FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 62% of Ayutthaya FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Ayutthaya FC tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Ayutthaya FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Chiangrai United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Leo Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 18, as Chiangrai United and Ayutthaya FC drew 0-0 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.27 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.19 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Chiangrai United fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Ayutthaya FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 0.80 / defence 0.94 against Ayutthaya FC attack 1.14 / defence 1.01, drawn from 47/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 38% | Draw 27% | Ayutthaya FC 35%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 29%, Ayutthaya FC 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 74%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chiangrai United 1.29 PPG, Ayutthaya FC 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Ayutthaya FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.