Buriram United vs Ratchaburi – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Buriram United run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Ratchaburi.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Buriram United beat Ratchaburi 6-0 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 2.48 xG and Ratchaburi 0.85 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Buriram United beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ratchaburi landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.31 / defence 0.76 against Ratchaburi attack 1.01 / defence 1.14, drawn from 41/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Buriram United 71% | Draw 19% | Ratchaburi 9%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 71%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 58%, Ratchaburi 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Buriram United's trading profile (41 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and duly kept one.

Ratchaburi's trading profile (41 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 1.39. That form edge translated into the three points. Buriram United (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.94 average — above their attacking norm. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights