Buriram United vs Rasi Salai United – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Buriram United at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Buriram United vs Rasi Salai United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Chang Arena plays host to Buriram United versus Rasi Salai United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 17 April 2027 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Buriram United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Buriram United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Buriram United have posted 7W 2D 1L at Chang Arena — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Rasi Salai United (all games): 0W 1D 4L across 5 Thai League 1 outings this term — 0.20 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Rasi Salai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rasi Salai United's away record: 0W 0D 3L from 3 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 4.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Buriram United's 2.00 PPG return is 1.80 points per game ahead of Rasi Salai United's 0.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Buriram United half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Rasi Salai United half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Buriram United 60% and Rasi Salai United 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Buriram United 40% | Rasi Salai United 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 2.98 xG and Rasi Salai United 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.182 / defence 0.991 | Rasi Salai United attack 0.989 / defence 1.729. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.292. Rasi Salai United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.729 — this is suppressing Buriram United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Buriram United games / 5 Rasi Salai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Buriram United 72% | Draw 15% | Rasi Salai United 13%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 1.39 | Draw 6.67 | Rasi Salai United 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (72%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 4.24. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.24 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.98 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Buriram United as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 80% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Buriram United 50% | Rasi Salai United 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Rasi Salai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Apr 2027, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 72% | Draw 15% | Rasi Salai United 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% | BTTS 68% | xG Buriram United 2.98 / Rasi Salai United 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.182 / def 0.991 | Rasi Salai United attack 0.989 / def 1.729 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.98
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Rasi Salai United xG
68%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs Rasi Salai United kick off?
Buriram United vs Rasi Salai United is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Saturday 17 April 2027 at Chang Arena.
Where is Buriram United vs Rasi Salai United being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Rasi Salai United part of?
Buriram United vs Rasi Salai United is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Rasi Salai United?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 72% chance of winning, Rasi Salai United a 13% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Rasi Salai United?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Buriram United and Rasi Salai United will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs Rasi Salai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Rasi Salai United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Buriram United and Rasi Salai United in?
Buriram United (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Rasi Salai United (all comps): 0W-1D-4L in 5 | 0.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Buriram United's attack rating (1.18) and Rasi Salai United's defence rating (1.73), the model arrives at 2.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rasi Salai United's attack (0.99x) against Buriram United's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 35/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.1%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.0%), 2-0 (6.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
72%
1.39
15%
6.48
13%
7.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
2 – 0
6.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.98
Buriram United xG
Total xG
4.24
1.26
Rasi Salai United xG
1.39
72%
Home win
6.48
15%
Draw
7.77
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.17
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
5%
19.61
Win to Nil
20%
4.94
1%
152.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Rasi Salai United?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Rasi Salai United expected to score?
The model projects 2.98 expected goals for Buriram United and 1.26 for Rasi Salai United, a combined total of 4.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Rasi Salai United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Buriram United come into this having played 5 games, going 4W 1D 0L for 2.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Buriram United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Rasi Salai United sit at 0.20 PPG from 5 outings (0W 1D 4L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Rasi Salai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Buriram United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.40 PPG clear of Rasi Salai United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Buriram United are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Rasi Salai United are on 1.40 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Buriram United have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Rasi Salai United in 100%.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Early Season
Rasi Salai United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and Rasi Salai United in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 4W 1D 0L in their last 5 games (2.60 PPG), while Rasi Salai United have gone 0W 1D 4L in their last 5 (0.20 PPG).
Have Buriram United or Rasi Salai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Rasi Salai United in 0%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Rasi Salai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Buriram United, 100% for Rasi Salai United — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Buriram United and 80% for Rasi Salai United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Rasi Salai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play Rasi Salai United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Buriram United's games and 100% of Rasi Salai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Buriram United vs Rasi Salai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Buriram United's matches and 80% of Rasi Salai United's.
Do Buriram United and Rasi Salai United tend to score early?
Buriram United have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Rasi Salai United in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.