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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Buriram United and Lamphun Warrior share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Buriram United and Lamphun Warrior finished level at 1-1 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 2.19 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.73 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Buriram United fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.57 / defence 0.82 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.86 / defence 0.93, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Buriram United 69% | Draw 22% | Lamphun Warrior 9%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 71%, Lamphun Warrior 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Buriram United's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.38 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights