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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Buriram United cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Kanchanaburi.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Buriram United beat Kanchanaburi 3-1 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 2.95 xG and Kanchanaburi 0.61 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.32 / defence 0.82 against Kanchanaburi attack 0.64 / defence 1.52, drawn from 42/12 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Buriram United 83% | Draw 13% | Kanchanaburi 4%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 83%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 83%, Kanchanaburi 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Buriram United's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

Kanchanaburi's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.58 PPG against 0.75. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights