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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Buriram United and BG Pathum United share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 7, as Buriram United and BG Pathum United drew 2-2 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 2.07 xG and BG Pathum United 0.90 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. BG Pathum United outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.46 / defence 0.83 against BG Pathum United attack 0.95 / defence 0.90, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Buriram United 63% | Draw 23% | BG Pathum United 14%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 72%, BG Pathum United 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Buriram United's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

BG Pathum United's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.71 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights