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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as BG Pathum United defy the odds to beat Buriram United 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

BG Pathum United beat Buriram United 1-2 at Khao Kradong Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 2.39 xG and BG Pathum United 0.90 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Buriram United fell 1.4 short of their projected output. BG Pathum United outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.65 / defence 0.66 against BG Pathum United attack 1.08 / defence 0.87, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Buriram United 70% | Draw 18% | BG Pathum United 12%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a BG Pathum United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 63%, BG Pathum United 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Buriram United's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.

BG Pathum United's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.81. Form was overturned, with BG Pathum United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights