Buriram United 0-2 Bangkok United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Buriram United (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Buriram United face Bangkok United.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Buriram United and Bangkok United meet at Chang Arena in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 February 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Buriram United (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Buriram United's home record at Chang Arena: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bangkok United have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bangkok United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bangkok United have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form ledger tips toward Buriram United. A 0.90 PPG lead over Bangkok United (2.50 vs 1.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Buriram United have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins from 9 meetings, with Bangkok United managing just 3 victories and 0 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Buriram United winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Buriram United and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Buriram United — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Bangkok United — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Buriram United 52% versus Bangkok United 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Buriram United 69% | Bangkok United 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 1.80 xG and Bangkok United 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.570 / defence 0.831 | Bangkok United attack 0.892 / defence 0.719. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.072. Buriram United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.570 — their λ of 1.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bangkok United's defence strength of 0.719 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 48 Buriram United games / 48 Bangkok United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Buriram United 61% | Draw 23% | Bangkok United 16%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Bangkok United 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Buriram United are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Buriram United 60% | Bangkok United 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Bangkok United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Feb 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 61% | Draw 23% | Bangkok United 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 46% | xG Buriram United 1.80 / Bangkok United 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.570 / def 0.831 | Bangkok United attack 0.892 / def 0.719 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Bangkok United xG
46%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs Bangkok United kick off?
Buriram United vs Bangkok United kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 1 February 2026 at Chang Arena.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs Bangkok United?
Buriram United 0 - 2 Bangkok United.
Where is Buriram United vs Bangkok United being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Bangkok United part of?
Buriram United vs Bangkok United is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Bangkok United?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 61% chance of winning, Bangkok United a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Bangkok United?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Buriram United and Bangkok United will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs Bangkok United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Bangkok United?
Record (9 meetings): Buriram United 6W | Draws 0 | Bangkok United 3W.
What form are Buriram United and Bangkok United in?
Buriram United (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Bangkok United (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Buriram United's attacking strength (1.57x league average) is weighed against Bangkok United's defensive record (0.72x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. Flip it around — Bangkok United's attack (0.89x) against Buriram United's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.1%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
61%
1.63
23%
4.42
16%
6.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Buriram United xG
Total xG
2.60
0.80
Bangkok United xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
6.22
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
16%
6.06
Win to Nil
28%
3.61
3%
37.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 10.7 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Bangkok United?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Bangkok United expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Buriram United and 0.80 for Bangkok United, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Bangkok United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Buriram United's recent record stands at 37W 6D 5L from 48 games, a 2.44 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bangkok United, meanwhile, have gone 30W 12D 6L across 48 games — 2.12 PPG, with D-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Bangkok United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.44 PPG for Buriram United against 2.12 for Bangkok United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Buriram United have managed 19W 2D 2L from 23 games — 2.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bangkok United's away record stands at 13W 6D 4L across 23 trips, a 1.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Buriram United are averaging 2.92 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Bangkok United are on 1.90 scored and 1.04 conceded. Bangkok United's attacking output running into Buriram United's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Bangkok United in 60%.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games; Bangkok United in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Blended
Bangkok United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and Bangkok United in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 37W 6D 5L in their last 48 games (2.44 PPG), while Bangkok United have gone 30W 12D 6L in their last 48 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Buriram United at home or Bangkok United away?
Buriram United's home record (2.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Buriram United at home: 2.57 PPG; Bangkok United away: 1.96 PPG.
Have Buriram United or Bangkok United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Bangkok United in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Buriram United have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bangkok United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Buriram United
0
Draws
4
Bangkok United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Bangkok United?
From 10 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 6, Bangkok United have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Bangkok United last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Buriram United 0-2 Bangkok United.
Who has won more matches between Buriram United and Bangkok United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Bangkok United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Buriram United 39%, Bangkok United 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Buriram United) and 52% (Bangkok United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Bangkok United in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Bangkok United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play Bangkok United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Buriram United's recent matches and 48% of Bangkok United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Buriram United vs Bangkok United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Buriram United's matches and 52% of Bangkok United's.
Do Buriram United and Bangkok United tend to score early?
Buriram United have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Bangkok United in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bangkok United cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Buriram United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bangkok United beat Buriram United 0-2 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 1.80 xG and Bangkok United 0.80 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Buriram United fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Bangkok United outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.57 / defence 0.83 against Bangkok United attack 0.89 / defence 0.72, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 61% | Draw 23% | Bangkok United 16%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Bangkok United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 69%, Bangkok United 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Buriram United's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Bangkok United's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Buriram United 2.44 PPG, Bangkok United 2.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bangkok United win broke the near-deadlock. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bangkok United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.