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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Buriram United cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ayutthaya FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Buriram United beat Ayutthaya FC 2-0 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 2.28 xG and Ayutthaya FC 0.86 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ayutthaya FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.68 / defence 0.85 against Ayutthaya FC attack 0.93 / defence 0.93, drawn from 55/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Buriram United 68% | Draw 22% | Ayutthaya FC 11%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 73%, Ayutthaya FC 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Buriram United's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.54 PPG against 1.23. Form held, and they took the win. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.08 scoring average — below par going forward. Ayutthaya FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights