Buriram United 2-0 Ayutthaya FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Buriram United at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Buriram United host Ayutthaya FC at Chang Arena in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 April 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Buriram United stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 3.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Chang Arena, Buriram United have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ayutthaya FC have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ayutthaya FC away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Buriram United are in the better shape of the two on current Thai League 1 data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Buriram United have won 1, Ayutthaya FC 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 4–1 with Buriram United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Buriram United trading profile (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Ayutthaya FC trading profile (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Buriram United 58% versus Ayutthaya FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Buriram United 73% | Ayutthaya FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 2.28 xG and Ayutthaya FC 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.682 / defence 0.847 | Ayutthaya FC attack 0.933 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.087. Buriram United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.682 — their λ of 2.28 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 55 Buriram United games / 26 Ayutthaya FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Buriram United 68% | Draw 22% | Ayutthaya FC 11%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 1.47 | Draw 4.55 | Ayutthaya FC 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (68%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Buriram United are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Buriram United 50% | Ayutthaya FC 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Apr 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 68% | Draw 22% | Ayutthaya FC 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 54% | xG Buriram United 2.28 / Ayutthaya FC 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.682 / def 0.847 | Ayutthaya FC attack 0.933 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.28
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Ayutthaya FC xG
54%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC kick off?
Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Chang Arena.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC?
Buriram United 2 - 0 Ayutthaya FC.
Where is Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC part of?
Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 68% chance of winning, Ayutthaya FC a 11% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Buriram United and Ayutthaya FC will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Ayutthaya FC?
Record (1 meetings): Buriram United 1W | Draws 0 | Ayutthaya FC 0W.
What form are Buriram United and Ayutthaya FC in?
Buriram United (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Buriram United's attacking strength (1.68x league average) is weighed against Ayutthaya FC's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.28. The same calculation in reverse, Ayutthaya FC's attack versus Buriram United's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
68%
1.48
22%
4.61
11%
9.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
Buriram United xG
Total xG
3.14
0.86
Ayutthaya FC xG
1.48
68%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
9.34
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
10%
9.80
Win to Nil
29%
3.49
1%
91.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Ayutthaya FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for Buriram United and 0.86 for Ayutthaya FC, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Buriram United's recent record stands at 21W 3D 2L from 26 games, a 2.54 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ayutthaya FC, meanwhile, have gone 8W 8D 10L across 26 games — 1.23 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Ayutthaya FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Buriram United by 1.31 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ayutthaya FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Buriram United have managed 11W 1D 1L from 13 games — 2.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ayutthaya FC's away record stands at 6W 4D 3L across 13 trips, a 1.69 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.23 PPG overall record — Ayutthaya FC travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Buriram United are averaging 2.92 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Ayutthaya FC are on 1.19 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Blended
Ayutthaya FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and Ayutthaya FC in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 21W 3D 2L in their last 26 games (2.54 PPG), while Ayutthaya FC have gone 8W 8D 10L in their last 26 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Buriram United at home or Ayutthaya FC away?
Buriram United's home record (2.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Buriram United at home: 2.62 PPG; Ayutthaya FC away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Buriram United or Ayutthaya FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Ayutthaya FC in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Buriram United
0
Draws
0
Ayutthaya FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Ayutthaya FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 2, Ayutthaya FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Ayutthaya FC last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Buriram United 2-0 Ayutthaya FC.
Who has won more matches between Buriram United and Ayutthaya FC?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Buriram United 54%, Ayutthaya FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Buriram United) and 46% (Ayutthaya FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Ayutthaya FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Ayutthaya FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play Ayutthaya FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Buriram United's recent matches and 54% of Ayutthaya FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Buriram United vs Ayutthaya FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Buriram United's matches and 46% of Ayutthaya FC's.
Do Buriram United and Ayutthaya FC tend to score early?
Buriram United have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Ayutthaya FC in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Buriram United cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ayutthaya FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Ayutthaya FC 2-0 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 2.28 xG and Ayutthaya FC 0.86 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ayutthaya FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.68 / defence 0.85 against Ayutthaya FC attack 0.93 / defence 0.93, drawn from 55/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 68% | Draw 22% | Ayutthaya FC 11%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 73%, Ayutthaya FC 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Buriram United's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.54 PPG against 1.23. Form held, and they took the win. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.08 scoring average — below par going forward. Ayutthaya FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.