🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

BG Pathum United and Sukhothai FC share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

BG Pathum United and Sukhothai FC finished level at 4-4 at BG Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting BG Pathum United 1.53 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.68 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. BG Pathum United beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sukhothai FC outscored their 0.68 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BG Pathum United attack 0.87 / defence 0.67 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.82 / defence 1.04, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it BG Pathum United 57% | Draw 28% | Sukhothai FC 15%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BG Pathum United 52%, Sukhothai FC 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

BG Pathum United's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Sukhothai FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights