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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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BG Pathum United and Rayong FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

BG Pathum United and Rayong FC finished level at 1-1 at BG Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting BG Pathum United 1.41 xG and Rayong FC 0.93 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BG Pathum United attack 1.03 / defence 0.75 against Rayong FC attack 1.03 / defence 0.92, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it BG Pathum United 45% | Draw 33% | Rayong FC 22%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BG Pathum United 50%, Rayong FC 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

BG Pathum United's trading profile (40 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Rayong FC's trading profile (40 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Rayong FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights