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Prediction vindicated as BG Pathum United edge out Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

BG Pathum United beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-0 at BG Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting BG Pathum United 2.04 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.70 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. BG Pathum United fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BG Pathum United attack 0.93 / defence 0.70 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.82 / defence 1.31, drawn from 56/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it BG Pathum United 68% | Draw 20% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 11%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BG Pathum United 44%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

BG Pathum United's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights