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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant BG Pathum United run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Muangthong United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

BG Pathum United beat Muangthong United 3-0 at BG Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting BG Pathum United 1.46 xG and Muangthong United 0.96 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. BG Pathum United beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Muangthong United landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BG Pathum United attack 0.98 / defence 0.80 against Muangthong United attack 1.01 / defence 0.97, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it BG Pathum United 46% | Draw 32% | Muangthong United 22%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BG Pathum United 46%, Muangthong United 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

BG Pathum United's trading profile (43 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Muangthong United's trading profile (43 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — BG Pathum United 1.74 PPG, Muangthong United 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BG Pathum United win broke the near-deadlock. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. Muangthong United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights