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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as BG Pathum United edge out Lamphun Warrior 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

BG Pathum United beat Lamphun Warrior 1-0 at BG Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting BG Pathum United 1.33 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.79 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BG Pathum United attack 0.99 / defence 0.73 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.89 / defence 0.81, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it BG Pathum United 49% | Draw 30% | Lamphun Warrior 22%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BG Pathum United 54%, Lamphun Warrior 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

BG Pathum United's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was vindicated by the result. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights