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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Chonburi FC defy the odds to beat BG Pathum United 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chonburi FC beat BG Pathum United 2-3 at BG Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting BG Pathum United 1.68 xG and Chonburi FC 1.10 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Chonburi FC outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BG Pathum United attack 1.10 / defence 0.99 against Chonburi FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.02, drawn from 52/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it BG Pathum United 49% | Draw 28% | Chonburi FC 23%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Chonburi FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BG Pathum United 54%, Chonburi FC 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

BG Pathum United's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Chonburi FC's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Chonburi FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights