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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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BG Pathum United and Chiangrai United share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at BG Stadium, Regular Season - 19, as BG Pathum United and Chiangrai United drew 2-2 in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting BG Pathum United 2.43 xG and Chiangrai United 0.96 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Chiangrai United outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BG Pathum United attack 1.12 / defence 0.78 against Chiangrai United attack 1.16 / defence 1.34, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it BG Pathum United 70% | Draw 18% | Chiangrai United 13%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BG Pathum United 48%, Chiangrai United 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

BG Pathum United's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Chiangrai United's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights