🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Buriram United cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over BG Pathum United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Buriram United beat BG Pathum United 1-3 at BG Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting BG Pathum United 1.38 xG and Buriram United 1.26 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Buriram United outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BG Pathum United attack 1.13 / defence 0.84 against Buriram United attack 1.32 / defence 0.79, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it BG Pathum United 39% | Draw 28% | Buriram United 33%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Buriram United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BG Pathum United 49%, Buriram United 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

BG Pathum United's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Buriram United's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.76. That form edge translated into the three points. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights