BG Pathum United 0-2 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Buriram United at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this BG Pathum United vs Buriram United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
BG Pathum United host Buriram United at BG Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 December 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
BG Pathum United — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for BG Pathum United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, BG Pathum United have posted 6W 2D 2L at BG Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Buriram United stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Buriram United's form when playing away from home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Buriram United are 0.50 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, BG Pathum United have won 2, Buriram United 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 6 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
BG Pathum United in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Buriram United in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BG Pathum United 66% versus Buriram United 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BG Pathum United 59% | Buriram United 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BG Pathum United 1.18 xG and Buriram United 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BG Pathum United attack 0.975 / defence 0.858 | Buriram United attack 1.551 / defence 0.707. League average goals — home 1.711 / away 1.139. Buriram United's defence strength of 0.707 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Buriram United have an above-average attack strength of 1.551 — the away xG of 1.51 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 BG Pathum United games / 44 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BG Pathum United 28% | Draw 29% | Buriram United 43%. Fair-value odds: BG Pathum United 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Buriram United 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Buriram United as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Buriram United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: BG Pathum United 70% | Buriram United 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BG Pathum United vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: BG Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Dec 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BG Pathum United 28% | Draw 29% | Buriram United 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG BG Pathum United 1.18 / Buriram United 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: BG Pathum United attack 0.975 / def 0.858 | Buriram United attack 1.551 / def 0.707 | league avg home 1.711 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
BG Pathum United xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Buriram United xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BG Pathum United vs Buriram United kick off?
BG Pathum United vs Buriram United kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 29 December 2024 at BG Stadium.
What was the final score in BG Pathum United vs Buriram United?
BG Pathum United 0 - 2 Buriram United.
Where is BG Pathum United vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at BG Stadium.
What competition is BG Pathum United vs Buriram United part of?
BG Pathum United vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win BG Pathum United vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives BG Pathum United a 28% chance of winning, Buriram United a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in BG Pathum United vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both BG Pathum United and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will BG Pathum United vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Buriram United?
Record (6 meetings): BG Pathum United 2W | Draws 3 | Buriram United 1W.
What form are BG Pathum United and Buriram United in?
BG Pathum United (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Buriram United (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
BG Pathum United's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Buriram United's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Buriram United's attack versus BG Pathum United's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
28%
3.63
29%
3.40
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
BG Pathum United xG
Total xG
2.69
1.51
Buriram United xG
3.63
28%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
6%
16.51
13%
7.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.3 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BG Pathum United vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are BG Pathum United and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for BG Pathum United and 1.51 for Buriram United, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for BG Pathum United vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
BG Pathum United come into this having played 44 games, going 22W 13D 9L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-W. The sample for BG Pathum United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Buriram United sit at 2.39 PPG from 44 outings (31W 12D 1L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Buriram United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of BG Pathum United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
BG Pathum United's home form reads 12W 6D 3L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Buriram United have taken 2.19 points per game from 21 outings (13W 7D 1L).
Goals in Recent Form
BG Pathum United are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 2.55 scored and 0.73 conceded. BG Pathum United's scoring rate against Buriram United's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: BG Pathum United have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: Buriram United in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BG Pathum United
Blended
Buriram United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BG Pathum United and Buriram United in coming into this match?
BG Pathum United have gone 22W 13D 9L in their last 44 games (1.80 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 31W 12D 1L in their last 44 (2.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BG Pathum United at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BG Pathum United at home: 2.00 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.19 PPG.
Have BG Pathum United or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
BG Pathum United have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Buriram United in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
BG Pathum United's record when hosting Buriram United specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
BG Pathum United
4
Draws
3
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Buriram United?
From 10 meetings on record, BG Pathum United have won 3, Buriram United have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did BG Pathum United and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when BG Pathum United 1-3 Buriram United.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BG Pathum United 67%, Buriram United 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (BG Pathum United) and 52% (Buriram United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Buriram United in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BG Pathum United home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BG Pathum United play Buriram United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of BG Pathum United's games and 52% of Buriram United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is BG Pathum United vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of BG Pathum United's matches and 52% of Buriram United's.
Do BG Pathum United and Buriram United tend to score early?
BG Pathum United have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Buriram United cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over BG Pathum United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat BG Pathum United 0-2 at BG Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BG Pathum United 1.18 xG and Buriram United 1.51 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. BG Pathum United fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BG Pathum United attack 0.97 / defence 0.86 against Buriram United attack 1.55 / defence 0.71, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BG Pathum United 28% | Draw 29% | Buriram United 43%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BG Pathum United 59%, Buriram United 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BG Pathum United's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Buriram United's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.80. Form held, and they took the win. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Buriram United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.