🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as BG Pathum United edge out Ayutthaya FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

BG Pathum United beat Ayutthaya FC 1-0 at BG Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting BG Pathum United 1.94 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.23 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. BG Pathum United fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Ayutthaya FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BG Pathum United attack 1.07 / defence 0.88 against Ayutthaya FC attack 1.21 / defence 1.14, drawn from 37/7 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it BG Pathum United 52% | Draw 26% | Ayutthaya FC 22%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BG Pathum United 57%, Ayutthaya FC 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 79%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

BG Pathum United's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. BG Pathum United conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Ayutthaya FC managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights