🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Bangkok United cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sukhothai FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bangkok United beat Sukhothai FC 2-0 at Thammasat Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bangkok United 2.11 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.57 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bangkok United attack 1.06 / defence 0.92 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.55 / defence 1.39, drawn from 53/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bangkok United 71% | Draw 22% | Sukhothai FC 7%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 71%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bangkok United 55%, Sukhothai FC 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bangkok United's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Sukhothai FC's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. Bangkok United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights