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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Ratchaburi run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Bangkok United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ratchaburi beat Bangkok United 1-4 at Thammasat Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bangkok United 1.47 xG and Ratchaburi 1.29 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Ratchaburi outscored their 1.29 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bangkok United attack 1.05 / defence 0.88 against Ratchaburi attack 1.35 / defence 0.96, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bangkok United 39% | Draw 31% | Ratchaburi 30%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Ratchaburi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bangkok United 53%, Ratchaburi 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bangkok United's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Ratchaburi's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bangkok United 2.07 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ratchaburi win broke the near-deadlock. Bangkok United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights