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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Buriram United defy the odds to beat Bangkok United 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Buriram United beat Bangkok United 1-2 at Thammasat Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bangkok United 1.85 xG and Buriram United 1.61 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bangkok United fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bangkok United attack 1.28 / defence 1.02 against Buriram United attack 1.30 / defence 0.96, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bangkok United 43% | Draw 25% | Buriram United 33%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Buriram United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bangkok United 68%, Buriram United 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bangkok United's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Buriram United's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bangkok United 2.32 PPG, Buriram United 2.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Buriram United win broke the near-deadlock. Bangkok United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights